As the Chicago Cubs (80-76) square off against the Philadelphia Phillies (92-64) in a pivotal matchup, the stakes are high for both teams. This marks the Cubs’ final road series of the season, while the Phillies are wrapping up their last homestand. The game is set to commence at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 p.m. ET on Monday, broadcasted live on MLB Network. Here, we delve into cubs vs phillies MLB odds for this contest and provide our expert picks and predictions.
Season Series Overview: Phillies Lead 2-1
The Cubs recently triumphed over the Washington Nationals, winning three out of four games. In an impressive performance on Sunday, left-handed pitcher Shota Imanaga delivered seven innings of scoreless baseball (0 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K), culminating in a 5-0 shutout with the bullpen holding strong. The Chicago lineup also showcased their power, launching three home runs in the victory.
Conversely, the Phillies, while bound for the playoffs, have struggled lately, losing three of their last four games to the New York Mets, including a narrow 2-1 defeat on Sunday. Right-hander Zack Wheeler, despite lowering his ERA to 2.56 with a solid outing (7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K), saw his offense falter, leaving eight runners stranded and failing to score after an early RBI single from third baseman Alec Bohm.
Projected Starting Pitchers
Cubs: RHP Nate Pearson
- Record: 2-2
- ERA: 4.71
- Pearson will make his first start after 57 appearances in relief. He boasts a 1.33 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, and 10.1 K/9 across 63 innings.
- 2024 Road Stats: 0-0, 5.20 ERA (27.2 IP, 16 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 in 26 appearances.
- Notably, he has allowed six of the twelve home runs he’s given up on the first pitch. In his initial 25 pitches, his OPS against is .838, plummeting to .173 as the game progresses.
Phillies: RHP Aaron Nola
- Record: 12-8
- ERA: 3.54
- Nola will take the mound for his 32nd start of the season, recording a 1.17 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, and 8.7 K/9 over 188.1 innings.
- Last Start: Nola received no decision after pitching seven innings, allowing one earned run on three hits with one walk and nine strikeouts in a 2-1 road loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.
- 2024 Home Stats: 6-4, 3.31 ERA (98 IP, 36 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 16 starts.
Odds for Cubs vs. Phillies
According to BetMGM Sportsbook, as of Monday at 3:58 p.m. ET:
- Moneyline: Cubs +155 (bet $100 to win $155) Phillies -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run Line: Cubs +1.5 (-125) Phillies -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 U: -105)
Predictions
Final Score Prediction: Phillies 6, Cubs 1
- Moneyline Insight: Following a loss, the Phillies boast the highest win rate in the league, tied with the Dodgers at 61.9%. Their performance against the National League stands at a commendable 66-44 (60%). However, given the current odds, the best strategy may be to PASS.
- Run Line Analysis: While the Cubs have performed decently against the spread on the road, they hold the worst record in baseball after a win, standing at 32-47 (40.5%). With their season nearing an end and a reliever on the mound, confidence in the Cubs is lacking.
Bet: Phillies -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under Evaluation: The Cubs exhibit a strong under record at 42-34-2 (55.3%). Meanwhile, the Phillies have also leaned toward the under as a home favorite, with a record of 39-29-3 (57.4%).
Though the Cubs’ pitching may struggle to contain the score, Philadelphia’s solid rotation should keep opposing offenses at bay. During their last homestand, they managed to limit opponents to under three runs in three of six games.
